HWT Publications

2021

  • Calhoun, K. M., K. L. Berry, D. M. Kingfield, T. Meyer, M. J. Krocak, T. M. Smith, G. Stumpf, and A. Gerard, 2021: The Experimental Warning Program of NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1-51, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0017.1.
  • Clark, A. J., I. L. Jirak, B. T. Gallo, B. Roberts, A. R. Dean, K. H. Knopfmeier, L. J. Wicker, M. Krocak, P. S. Skinner, P. L. Heinselman, K. A. Wilson, J. Vancil, K. A. Hoogewind, N. A. Dahl, G. J. Creager, T. A. Jones, J. Gao, Y. Wang, E. D. Loken, M. Flora, C. A. Kerr, N. Yussouf, S. R. Dembek, W. Miller, J. Martin, J. Guerra, B. Matilla, D. Jahn, D. Harrison, D. Imy, and M. C. Coniglio, 2021: A Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., E814-E816, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0268.1.
  • Flora, M. L., C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, S. Handler, and A. McGovern, 2021: Using Machine Learning to Generate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 1535-1557.
  • Gallo, B. T., J. K. Wolff, A. J. Clark, I. Jirak, L. R. Blank, B. Roberts, Y. Wang, C. Zhang, M. Xue, T. Supinie, L. Harris, L. Zhou, C. Alexander, 2021: Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 3-19.
  • Kalina, E. A., I. Jankov, T. Alcott, J. Olson, J. Beck, J. Berner, D. Dowell, and C. Alexander, 2021: A Progress Report on the Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 791-804.
  • Kerr, C. A., L. J. Wicker, and P. S. Skinner, 2021: Updraft-Based Adaptive Assimilation of Radial Velocity Observations in a Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 21-37.
  • Labriola, J., Y. Jung, C. Liu, and M. Xue, 2021: Evaluating Forecast Performance and Sensitivity to the GSI EnKF Data Assimilation Configuration for the 28–29 May 2017 Mesoscale Convective System Case. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 127-146.
  • Manross, K. L., Y. Guo, G. Stumpf, T. C. Meyer, J. Monroe, A. V. Bates, D. Nietfeld, D. Kingfield, and K. Berry, 2021: Updates on Hazard Service - Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI). 11th Conf. on Transition of Research to Operations, Virtual, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 532.
  • Stumpf, G. J., and A. E. Gerard, 2021: National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 627-643.
  • Thompson, G., J. Berner, M. Frediani, J. A. Otkin, and S. M. Griffin, 2021: A Stochastic Parameter Perturbation Method to Represent Uncertainty in a Microphysics Scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 1481-1497.
  • Zhuang, X., M. Xue, J. Min, Z. Kang, N. Wu, and F. Kong, 2021: Error Growth Dynamics within Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts over Central U.S. Regions for Days of Active Convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 959-977.

2020

  • Burke, A., N. Snook, D. J. Gagne, S. McCorkle, and A. McGovern, 2020: Calibration of Machine Learning–Based Probabilistic Hail Predictions for Operational Forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 149-168.
  • Cintineo, J. L., M. J. Pavolonis, J. M. Sieglaff, L. Cronce, and J. Brunner, 2020: NOAA ProbSevere v2.0 – ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTor. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 1523-1543.
  • Clark, A. J., I. L. Jirak, B. T. Gallo, B. Roberts, K. H. Knopfmeier, R. A. Clark, J. Vancil, A. R. Dean, K. A. Hoogewind, P. L. Heinselman, N. A. Dahl, M. J. Krocak, J. J. Choate, K. A. Wilson, P. S. Skinner, T. A. Jones, Y. Wang, G. J. Creager, L. J. Reames, L. J. Wicker, S. R. Dembek, and S. J. Weiss, 2020: A Real-Time, Simulated Forecasting Experiment for Advancing the Prediction of Hazardous Convective Weather. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., E2022-E2024, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0298.1.
  • Coleman, A., and B. Ancell, 2020: Toward the Improvement of High-Impact Probabilistic Forecasts with a Sensitivity-Based Convective-Scale Ensemble Subsetting Technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 4995-5014.
  • Esmaili, R. B., N. Smith, E. B. Berndt, J. F. Dostalek, B. H. Kahn, K. White, C. D. Barnet, W. Sjoberg, M. Goldberg, 2020: Adapting Satellite Soundings for Operational Forecasting within the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Remote Sens.,12, 886, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12050886.
  • Gasperoni, X. Wang, Y. Wang, 2020: A Comparison of Methods to Sample Model Errors for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts in the Setting of Multiscale Initial Conditions Produced by the GSI-Based EnVar Assimilation System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 1177-1203.
  • Hu, J., A. O. Fierro, Y. Wang, J. Gao, and E. R. Mansell, 2020: Exploring the Assimilation of GLM-Derived Water Vapor Mass in a Cycled 3DVAR Framework for the Short-Term Forecasts of High-Impact Convective Events. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 1005-1028.
  • James, J. J. , C. Ling, C. Karstens, J. Correia, K. Calhoun, T. Meyer, and D. Ladue, 2020: Forecasters’ cognitive task analysis and mental workload analysis of issuing probabilistic hazard information (PHI) during FACETs PHI Prototype Experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0194.1.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, Y. Wang, A. Reinhart, A. J. Clark, and I. L. Jirak, 2020: Neighborhood- and Object-Based Probabilistic Verification of the OU MAP Ensemble Forecasts during 2017 and 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbeds. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 169-191.
  • Jones, T. A., P. Skinner, N. Yussouf, K. Knopfmeier, A. Reinhart, X. Wang, K. Bedka, W. Smith, Jr., and R. Palikonda, 2020: Assimilation of GOES-16 Radiances and Retrievals into the Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 1829-1859.
  • Klockow-McClain, K. E., K. Berry, C. A. Shivers-Williams, M. J. Krocak, K. A. Wilson, J. J. James, G. J. Stumpf, Z. Stanford, A. MacDonald, J. E. Trujillo, A. E. Gerard, 2020: Putting multiple probabilistic products before end users: The 2019 HWT Emergency Manager experiments. 15th Symp. On Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice, Boston, MA, American Meteorological Society, 12A.6.
  • Labriola, J., N. Snook, Y. Jung, and M. Xue, 2020: Evaluating Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses of Severe Hailstorms on 8 May 2017 in Colorado: Effects of State Variable Updating and Multimoment Microphysics Schemes on State Variable Cross Covariances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 2365-2389.
  • Loken, E. D., A. J. Clark, and C. D. Karstens, 2020: Generating Probabilistic Next-Day Severe Weather Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Random Forests. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 1605-1631.
  • Martinaitis, S. M., B. Albright, J. J. Gourley, S. Perfater, T. Meyer, Z. L. Flamig, R. A. Clark, H. Vergara, and M. Klein, 2020: The 23 June 2016 West Virginia flash flood event as observed through two Hydrometeorology Testbed experiments, Wea. Forecasting, 35, 2099–2126, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0016.1.
  • Obermeier, H., K. Berry, K. E. Klockow-McClain, T. C. Meyer, P. A. Campbell, A. E. Gerard, J. E. Trujillo, and C. Carithers, 2020: Communicating probabilistic hazard information: Broadcast meteorologists in the 2018-19 Hazardous Weather Testbed. 15th Symp. on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice, Boston, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 12A.4.
  • Potvin, C. K., P. S. Skinner, K. A. Hoogewind, M. C. Coniglio, J. A. Gibbs, A. J. Clark, M. L. Flora, A. E. Reinhart, J. R. Carley, and E. N. Smith, 2020: Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 2567-2590.
  • Ripberger, J. T., C. Silva, H. Jenkins-Smith, J. Allan, M. J. Krocak, W. Wehde, and S. Ernst, 2020: Exploring community differences in tornado warning reception, comprehension, and response across the United States. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 101, 936–948, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0064.1.
  • Roberts, B., B. T. Gallo, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, and Y. Wang, 2020: What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms? Wea. Forecasting, 35, 2293-2316.
  • Sandmael, T., K. L. Elmore, B. R. Smith, 2020: A new machine learning-based tornado detection algorithm for the WSR-88D Network. 19th Conf. on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science, Boston, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P364.
  • Smith, B. R., 2020: The New Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm Proposed for the WSR-88D Radar Network - Development Update. 45th Annual Meeting, Virtual, National Weather Association.
  • Snook, N., F. Kong, A. J. Clark, B. Roberts, K. A. Brewster, and M. Xue, 2020: Comparison and verification of point-wise and patch-wise localized probability-matched mean algorithms for ensemble consensus precipitation forecasts. Geo. Res. Let., 47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087839.
  • Sobash, R. A., G. S. Romine, and C. S. Schwartz, 2020: A Comparison of Neural-Network and Surrogate-Severe Probabilistic Convective Hazard Guidance Derived from a Convection-Allowing Model. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 1981-2000.
  • Wicker, L. J., and W. C. Skamarock, 2020: An Implicit–Explicit Vertical Transport Scheme for Convection-Allowing Models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 3893-3910.
  • Yussouf, N., K. A. Wilson, S. M. Martinaitis, H. Vergara, P. L. Heinselman, and J. J. Gourley, 2020: The coupling of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast and FLASH systems for probabilistic flash flood prediction, J. Hydrometeor., 21, 123–141, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0131.1.

2019

  • Adams-Selin, R. D., A. J. Clark, C. J. Melick, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, and C. L. Ziegler, 2019: Evolution of WRF-HAILCAST during the 2014–16 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 61-79.
  • Bates, A. V., J. G. LaDue, G. J. Stumpf, A. Gerard, T. L. Hansen, K. L. Manross, J. J. James, C. Ling, L. P. Rothfusz, T. C. Meyer, K. Berry, D. M. Kingfield, 2019: Preparing for FACETs: The need for inclusive National Weather Service forecaster training and innovative collaboration tools. 9th Conf. on Transition of Research to Operations, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13A.5.
  • Bruning, E. C., C. E. Tillier, S. F. Edington, S. D. Rudlosky, J. Zajic, C. Gravelle, M. Foster, K. M. Calhoun, P. A. Campbell, G. T. Stano, C. J. Schultz, and T. C. Meyer, 2019: Meteorological imagery for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 14 285–14 309, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030874.
  • Clark, A. J., 2019: Comparisons of QPFs Derived from Single- and Multicore Convection-Allowing Ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1955-1964.
  • Flora, M. L., P. S. Skinner, C. K. Potvin, A. E. Reinhart, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2019: Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1721-1739.
  • Gallo, B. T., C. P. Kalb, J. H. Gotway, H. H. Fisher, B. Roberts, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, C. Alexander, and T. L. Jensen, 2019: Initial Development and Testing of a Convection-Allowing Model Scorecard. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., ES367-ES384, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0218.1.
  • Gallo, B. T., A. J. Clark, B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S. R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 151-164.
  • Gallus, W. A., J. Wolff, J. H. Gotway, M. Harrold, L. Blank, and J. Beck, 2019: The Impacts of Using Mixed Physics in the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 849-867.
  • Labriola, J., N. Snook, M. Xue, and K. W. Thomas, 2019: Forecasting the 8 May 2017 Severe Hail Storm in Denver, Colorado, at a Convection-Allowing Resolution: Understanding Rimed Ice Treatments in Multimoment Microphysics Schemes and Their Effects on Hail Size Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 3045-3068.
  • Labriola, J., N. Snook, Y. Jung, and M. Xue, 2019: Explicit Ensemble Prediction of Hail in 19 May 2013 Oklahoma City Thunderstorms and Analysis of Hail Growth Processes with Several Multimoment Microphysics Schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 1193-1213.
  • Loken, E. D., A. J. Clark, A. McGovern, M. Flora, and K. Knopfmeier, 2019: Postprocessing Next-Day Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Random Forests. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 2017-2044.
  • Loken, E. D., A. J. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2019: Spread and Skill in Mixed- and Single-Physics Convection-Allowing Ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 305-330.
  • McGovern, A., C. D. Karstens, T. Smith, and R. Lagerquist, 2019: Quasi-Operational Testing of Real-Time Storm-Longevity Prediction via Machine Learning. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1437-1451.
  • Obermeier, H., K. L. Nemunaitis-Berry, K. E. Klockow-McClain, T. C. Meyer, P. A. Campbell, A. Gerard, and C. Kolakoski, 2019: Communicating probabilistic hazard information: Broadcast meteorologists in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed. 47th Conf. on Broadcast Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J7.6.
  • Potvin, C. K., J. R. Carley, A. J. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, B. T. Gallo, J. S. Kain, G. S. Romine, E. A. Aligo, K. A. Brewster, D. C. Dowell, L. M. Harris, I. L. Jirak, F. Kong, T. A. Supinie, K. W. Thomas, X. Wang, Y. Wang, and M. Xue, 2019: Systematic Comparison of Convection-Allowing Models during the 2017 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1395-1416.
  • Ripberger, J. T., M. J. Krocak, W. W. Wehde, J. N. Allan, C. Silva, and H. Jenkins-Smith, 2019: Measuring tornado warning reception, comprehension, and response in the United States. Wea. Climate Soc., 11, 863–880, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0015.1.
  • Roberts, B., I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, S. J. Weiss, and J. S. Kain, 2019: PostProcessing and Visualization Techniques for Convection-Allowing Ensembles. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1245-1258, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0041.1.
  • Schwartz, C. S., G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, and M. L. Weisman, 2019: NCAR’s Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 321-343, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0297.1.
  • Smith, B. R., B. Smith, R. Thompson, I. Jirak, M. Mahalik, 2019: The Conditional Probability of Tornado Intensity (CPTI) Algorithm. 44th Annual Meeting, Huntsville, AL, National Weather Association, P1.66.
  • Snook, N., F. Kong, K. A. Brewster, M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, T. A. Supinie, S. Perfater, and B. Albright, 2019: Evaluation of Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecast Products Using WRF, NMMB, and FV3 for the 2016–17 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiments. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 781-804.
  • Snook, N., M. Xue, and Y. Jung, 2019: Tornado-Resolving Ensemble and Probabilistic Predictions of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle–Moore EF5 Tornado. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 1215-1235.
  • Wang, J., X. Dong, A. Kennedy, B. Hagenhoff, and B. Xi, 2019: A Regime-Based Evaluation of Southern and Northern Great Plains Warm-Season Precipitation Events in WRF. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 805-831.
  • Wang, Y., J. Gao, P. S. Skinner, K. Knopfmeier, T. Jones, G. Creager, P. L. Heinselman, and L. J. Wicker, 2019: Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1808-1827.
  • Wilson, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, P. S. Skinner, J. J. Choate, and K. E. Klockow-McClain, 2019: Meteorologists’ Interpretations of Storm-Scale Ensemble-Based Forecast Guidance. Wea. Cli. Soc., 11, 337-254.
  • Wilson, K. A., J. J. Choate, A. J. Clark, B. T. Gallo, P. L. Heinselman, K. H. Knopfmeier, B. Roberts, P. S. Skinner, and N. Yussouf, 2019: Exploring applications of storm-scale probabilistic warn-on-forecast guidance in weather forecasting. International Conference on Human–Computer Interaction (HCII 2019): Virtual, Augmented and Mixed-Reality, Applications and Case Studies, J. Chen and G. Fragomeni, Eds., 577–572, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21565-1_39.

2018

  • Calhoun, K. M., 2018: Feedback and Recommendations for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in Severe and Hazardous Weather Forecasting and Warning Operations. NOAA Report. 15pp. available: https://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/ewp/projects/GLM-HWT-report_2018.pdf.
  • Cintineo, J. L., M. J. Pavolonis, J. M. Sieglaff, D. T. Lindsey, L. Cronce, J. Gerth, B. Rodenkirch, J. Brunner, and C. Gravelle, 2018: The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model: Incorporation of Total Lightning and Validation. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 331-345.
  • Clark, A. J., I. L. Jirak, S. R. Dembek, G. J. Creager, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, K. H. Knopfmeier, B. T. Gallo, C. J. Melick, M. Xue, K. A. Brewster, Y. Jung, A. Kennedy, X. Dong, J. Markel, M. Gilmore, G. S. Romine, K. R. Fossell, R. A. Sobash, J. R. Carley, B. S. Ferrier, M. Pyle, C. R. Alexander, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, L. J. Wicker, G. Thompson, R. D. Adams-Selin, and D. A. Imy, 2018: The Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in the 2016 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1433-1448, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0309.1.
  • Flora, M. L., C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker, 2018: Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 2361-2379.
  • Gallo, B. T., A. J. Clark, B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S. R. Dembek, 2018: Blended Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Combining Climatological Frequencies with NSSL–WRF Ensemble Forecasts. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 443-460.
  • Grasso, L., D. T. Lindsey, Y.-J. Noh, C. O’Dell, T.-C. Wu, and F. Kong, 2018: Improvements to Cloud-Top Brightness Temperatures Computed from the CRTM at 3.9 μm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 3927-3944.
  • Jones, T. A., X. Wang, P. Skinner, A. Johnson, and Y. Wang, 2018: Assimilation of GOES-13 Imager Clear-Sky Water Vapor (6.5 μm) Radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 1077-1107.
  • Jones, T. A., P. Skinner, K. Knopfmeier, E. Mansell, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, and W. Smith, Jr., 2018: Comparison of Cloud Microphysics Schemes in a Warn-on-Forecast System Using Synthetic Satellite Objects. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 1681-1708.
  • Karstens, C. D., J. Correia Jr, D. S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T. C. Meyer, D. R. Harrison, J. L. Cintineo, K. M. Calhoun, T. M. Smith, A. E. Gerard, and L. P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a human-machine mix for forecasting severe convective events. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 715–737, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0188.1.
  • Lawson, J. R., J. S. Kain, N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, and T. A. Jones, 2018: Advancing from Convection-Allowing NWP to Warn-on-Forecast: Evidence of Progress. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 599-607.
  • Nevius, D. S., and C. Evans, 2018: The Influence of Vertical Advection Discretization in the WRF-ARW Model on Capping Inversion Representation in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 1639-1660.
  • Obermeier, H., K. L. Nemunaitis-Berry, K. E. Klockow, C. D. Karstens, A. Gerard, L. P. Rothfusz, 2018: Broadcast meteorologist decision-making in the 2017 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Project. 13th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research & Practice, Austin, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 8.4.
  • Rothfusz, L. P., R. Schneider, D. Novak, K. Klockow-McClain, A. E. Gerard, C. Karstens, G. J. Stumpf, and T. M. Smith, 2018: FACETs: A Proposed Next-Generation Paradigm for High-Impact Weather Forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2025-2043, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0100.1.
  • Skinner, P. S., D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, A. E. Reinhart, J. J. Choate, T. A. Jones, G. J. Creager, D. C. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, T. T. Ladwig, L. J. Wicker, P. L. Heinselman, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2018: Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 1225-1250.
  • Stumpf, G. J., T. L. Hansen, A. Bates, C. Golden, Y. Guo, J. James, J. G. LaDue, C. Ling, K. L. Manross, T. Meyer, 2018: Three Years of Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Experiments at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. 29th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 112.
  • Wilson, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, and Z. Kang, 2018: Comparing forecaster eye movements during the warning decision process. Wea.Forecasting, 33, 501–521, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0119.1.

2017

  • Argyle, E. M., J. J. Gourley, Z. L. Flamig, T. Hansen, and K. Manross, 2017: Towards a user- centered design of a weather forecasting decision support tool. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 373–382, https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0031.1.
  • Clark, A. J., 2017: Generation of Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1569-1583.
  • Gallo, B. T., A. J. Clark, I. Jirak, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. C. Coniglio, K. Knopfmeier, J. Correia, Jr., C. J. Melick, C. D. Karstens, E. Iyer, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, Y. Jung, F. Shen, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, D. Stratman, G. W. Carbin, W. Line, R. Adams-Selin, and S. Willington, 2017: Breaking New Ground in Severe Weather Prediction: The 2015 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1541-1568.
  • Gagne, D. J., A. McGovern, S. E. Haupt, R. A. Sobash, J. K. Williams, and M. Xue, 2017: Storm-Based Probabilistic Hail Forecasting with Machine Learning Applied to Convection-Allowing Ensembles. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1819-1840.
  • Gourley, J. J., Z. Flamig, H. Vergara, P. Kirstetter, R. Clark III, E. Argyle, A. Arthur, S. Martinaitis, G. Terti, J. Erlingis, Y. Hong, and K. Howard, 2017: The Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 361–372, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1.
  • Groenemeijer, P., T. Pucik, A. M. Holzer, B. Antonescu, K. Riemann-Campe, D. M. Schultz, T. Kuhne, B. Feuerstein, H. E. Brooks, C. A. Doswell, H-J. Koppert, and R. Sausen, 2017: Severe Convective Storms in Europe: Ten Years of Research and Education at the European Severe Storms Laboratory. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2641-2651, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0067.1.
  • Kain, J. S., S. Willington, A. J. Clark, S. J. Weiss, M. Weeks, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, N. M. Roberts, C. D. Karstens, J. M. Wilkinson, K. H. Knopfmeier, H. W. Lean, L. Ellam, K. Hanley, R. North, and D. Suri, 2017: Collaborative Efforts between the United States and United Kingdom to Advance Prediction of High-Impact Weather. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 937-948, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00199.1.
  • Kochasic, W. A. Gallus, Jr., and C. J. Schaffer, 2017: Further Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts Using the QPF–PoP Neighborhood Relationship. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1423-1440.
  • Lagerquist, R., A. McGovern, and T. Smith, 2017: Machine Learning for Real-Time Prediction of Damaging Straight-Line Convective Wind. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 2175-2193.
  • Ling, C., J. J. James, S. M. Miran, G. J. Stumpf, T. L. Hansen, K. L. Manross, J. LaDue, A. V. Bates, C. Karstens, K. M. Calhoun, J. Correia Jr., T. C. Meyer, A. Gerard, and L. Rothfusz, 2017: Forecasters' mental workload while issuing Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) during 2016 FACETs PHI Hazardous Weather Testbeds. 33rd Conf. on Environmental Info. Processing Tech., Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J9.3.
  • Loken, E. D., A. J. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2017: Comparison of Next-Day Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts from Coarse- and Fine-Resolution CAMs and a Convection-Allowing Ensemble. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1403-1421.
  • Martinaitis, S. M., J. J. Gourley, Z. L. Flamig, E. M. Argyle, R. A. Clark, A. Arthur, B. R. Smith, J. M. Erlingis, S. Perfater, B. Albright, 2017: The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 347–359, https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00283.1.
  • McGovern, A., K. L. Elmore, D. J. Gagne, S. E. Haupt, C. D. Karstens, R. Lagerquist, T. Smith, and J. K. Williams, 2017: Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Real-Time Decision-Making for High-Impact Weather. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2073-2090, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0123.1.
  • Nemunaitis-Berry, K. L., and H. M. Obermeier, 2017: Conference Notebook, Broadcast meteorologist decision making in the 2016 Hazardous Weather Test Probabilistic Hazard Information Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2045–2047.
  • Putnam, B. J., M. Xue, Y. Jung, G. Zhang, and F. Kong, 2017: Simulation of Polarimetric Radar Variables from 2013 CAPS Spring Experiment Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts and Evaluation of Microphysics Schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 49-73.
  • Schultz, C. J., L. D. Carey, E. V. Schultz, and R. J. Blakeslee, 2017: Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps versus Nonjump Increases in Total Flash Rate. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 275-288.
  • Sobash, R. A., and J. S. Kain, 2017: Seasonal Variations in Severe Weather Forecast Skill in an Experimental Convection-Allowing Model. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1885-1902.
  • Surcel, M., I. Zawadzki, M. K. Yau, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2017: More on the Scale Dependence of the Predictability of Precipitation Patterns: Extension to the 2009–13 CAPS Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 3625-3646.
  • Wilson, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, C. M. Kuster, D. M. Kingfield, and Z. Kang, 2017: Forecaster performance and workload: Does radar update time matter? Wea.Forecasting, 32, 253–274, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0157.1.
  • Wilson, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, and C. M. Kuster, 2017: Considerations for phased-array radar data use within the National Weather Service. Wea.Forecasting, 32, 1959–1965, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0084.1.

2016

  • Adams-Selin, R. D., C. L. Ziegler, 2016: Forecasting Hail Using a One-Dimensional Hail Growth Model within WRF. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 4919-4939.
  • Bowden, K. A., and P. L. Heinselman, 2016: A qualitative analysis of NWS forecasters’ use of phased-array radar data during severe hail and wind events. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 43–55, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0089.1.
  • Bowden, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, and Z. Kang, 2016: Exploring applications of eye-tracking in operational meteorology research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00148.1.
  • Calhoun, K. M., D. M. Kingfield, T. Meyer, W. Roberts, J. Ramer, B. Motta, and L. Rothfusz, 2016: Earth Networks Total Lightning Data and Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts Evaluation in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. 33pp. available: http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/ewp/ENI_HWT_Finalreport_Mar2016.pdf.
  • Dahl, N., and M. Xue, 2016: Prediction of the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Event in a Multiphysics Multi-Initial-Conditions Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 1215-1246.
  • Duda, J. D., X. Wang, F. Kong, M. Xue, and J. Berner, 2016: Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Warm Season Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0092.1.
  • Fekri, M. and J. K. Yau, 2016: A Study of Rain Forecast Error Structure Based on Radar Observations over a Continental-Scale Spatial Domain. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 2871-2887.
  • Fekri, M. and J. K. Yau, 2016: An Information-Theoretical Score of Dichotomous Precipitation Forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1633-1647.
  • Gallo, B. T., A. J. Clark, and S. R. Dembek, 2016: Forecasting Tornadoes Using Convection-Permitting Ensembles. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 273–295.
  • Gravelle, C. M., J. R. Mecikalski, W. E. Line, K. M. Bedka, R. A. Petersen, J. M. Sieglaff, G. T. Stano, and S. J. Goodman, 2016: Demonstration of a GOES-R Satellite Convective Toolkit to “Bridge the Gap” between Severe Weather Watches and Warnings: An Example from the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, Tornado Outbreak. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00054.1.
  • Iyer, E. R., A. J. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2016: A Comparison of 36-60 Hour Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 647–661, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0143.1.
  • Line, W. E., T. J. Schmit, D. T. Lindsey, and S. J. Goodman, 2016: Use of Geostationary Super Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery by the Storm Prediction Center. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 483–494, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0135.1.
  • Milbrandt, J. A., and H. Morrison, 2016: Parameterization of Cloud Microphysics Based on the Prediction of Bulk Ice Particle Properties. Part III: Introduction of Multiple Free Categories. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 975–995.
  • Ortega, K. L., J. M. Krause, and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2016: Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Melting Hail. Part III: Validation of the Algorithm for Hail Size Discrimination, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 55, 829–848. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0203.1.
  • Smith, T. M., V. Lakshmanan, G. J. Stumpf, K. L. Ortega, K. Hondl, K. Cooper, K. M. Calhoun, D. M. Kingfield, K. L. Manross, R. Toomey, and J. Brogden, 2016: Multi-radar Multi-sensor (MRMS) Severe Weather and Aviation Products: Initial Operating Capabilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 1617–1630, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00173.1.
  • Sobash, R. A., G. S. Romine, C. S. Schwartz, D. J. Gagne, and M. L. Weisman, 2016: Explicit Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation from Convection-Allowing Models for Next-Day Tornado Prediction. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 1591-1614.
  • Surcel, M., I. Zawadzki, and M. K. Yau, 2016: The Case-to-Case Variability of the Predictability of Precipitation by a Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 193–212.
  • Tanamachi, R. L., and P. L. Heinselman, 2016: Rapid-scan, polarimetric observations of Central Oklahoma severe storms on 31 May 2013. Wea.Forecasting, 31, 19–42.
  • Wilson, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, and Z. Kang, 2016: Exploring applications of eye-tracking in operational meteorology research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 2019–2025, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00148.1.
  • Wong, M., and W. C. Skamarock, 2016: Spectral Characteristics of Convective-Scale Precipitation Observations and Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 4183-4196.

2015

  • Bowden, K. A., P. L. Heinselman, D. M. Kingfield, and R. P. Thomas, 2015: Impacts of phased-array radar data on forecaster performance during severe hail and wind events. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 389 – 404.
  • Calhoun, K. M., T. M. Smith, D. M. Kingfield, J. Gao, and D. J. Stensrud, 2014: Forecaster Use and Evaluation of Real-Time 3DVAR Analyses during Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warning Operations in the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 601–613.
  • Clark, A. J., M. C. Coniglio, B. E. Coffer, G. Thompson, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2015: Sensitivity of 24-h Forecast Dryline Position and Structure to Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Allowing WRF Model Simulations. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 613–638.
  • Clark, A. J., A. MacKenzie, A. McGovern, V. Lakshmanan, and R. A. Brown, 2015: An Automated, Multiparameter Dryline Identification Algorithm. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1781–1794.
  • Fierro, A. O., A. J. Clark, E. R. Mansell, D. R. MacGorman, S. R. Dembek, and C. L. Ziegler, 2015: Impact of Storm-Scale Lightning Data Assimilation on WRF-ARW Precipitation Forecasts during the 2013 Warm Season over the Contiguous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 757–777.
  • Gagne, D. J., II, A. McGovern, and M. Xue, 2014: Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 1024–1043.
  • Grasso, L., D. T. Lindsey, K.-S. S. Lim, A. J. Clark, D. Bikos, and S. R. Dembek, 2014: Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF-ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3635–3650.
  • Heinselman, P., D. LaDue, D. Kingfield, and R. Hoffman, 2015: Tornado warning decisions using phased-array radar data. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 57 – 78.
  • Jiang, H., S. Albers, Y. Xie, Z. Toth, I. Jankov, M. Scotten, J. Picca, G. Stumpf, D. Kingfield, D. Birkenheuer, and B. Motta, 2015: Real-Time Applications of the Variational Version of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (vLAPS). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 2045–2057.
  • Karstens, C. D., G. Stumpf, C. Ling, L. Hua, D. Kingfield, T. M. Smith, J. Correia, Jr., K. M. Calhoun, K. L. Ortega, C. J. Melick, and L. P. Rothfusz, 2015: Evaluation of a probabilistic forecasting methodology for severe convective weather in the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1551-1570.
  • Kuster, C. M., P. L. Heinselman, and M. Austin, 2015: 31 May 2013 El Reno Tornadoes: Advantages of rapid-scan phased array radar data from a warning forecaster’s perspective. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 933–956.
  • Mecikalski, J. R., J. K. Williams, C. P. Jewett, D. Ahijevych, A. LeRoy, and J. R. Walker, 2015: Probabilistic 0–1-h Convective Initiation Nowcasts that Combine Geostationary Satellite Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 1039–1059.
  • Schumacher, R. S., and A. J. Clark, 2014: Evaluation of Ensemble Configurations for the Analysis and Prediction of Heavy-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 4108–4138.
  • Schwartz, C. S., G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, and M. L. Weisman, 2015: NCAR’s Experimental Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1645–1654.
  • Surcel, M., I. Zawadzki, and M. K. Yau, 2015: A Study on the Scale Dependence of the Predictability of Precipitation Patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 216–235.
  • Wheatley, D. M., K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, and G. J. Creager, 2015: Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Part I: Radar Data Experiments. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1795–1817.

2014

  • Burghardt, Brock J., Clark Evans, Paul J. Roebber, 2014: Assessing the Predictability of Convection Initiation in the High Plains Using an Object-Based Approach. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 403–418.
  • Cintineo, R., J. A. Otkin, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2014: Evaluating the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer and Cloud Microphysical Parameterization Schemes in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts Using Synthetic GOES-13 Satellite Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 163–182.
  • Clark, A. J., R. Bullock, T. Jensen, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2014: Application of object-based time-domain diagnostics for tracking precipitation systems in convection-allowing models. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 517–542.
  • Duda, J. D., X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2014: Using Varied Microphysics to Account for Uncertainty in Warm-Season QPF in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 2198–2219.
  • Fierro, Alexandre O., Jidong Gao, Conrad L. Ziegler, Edward R. Mansell, Donald R. MacGorman, Scott R. Dembek, 2014: Evaluation of a Cloud-Scale Lightning Data Assimilation Technique and a 3DVAR Method for the Analysis and Short-Term Forecast of the 29 June 2012 Derecho Event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 183–202.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, G. Zhao, Y. Wang, K. W. Thomas, and K. A. Brewster, 2014: Multiscale Characteristics and Evolution of Perturbations for Warm Season Convection-Allowing Precipitation Forecasts: Dependence on Background Flow and Method of Perturbation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1053–1073.
  • Ralph, F. Martin, and Coauthors, 2013: The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1187–1211.
  • Smith, Travis M., and Coauthors, 2014: Examination of a Real-Time 3DVAR Analysis System in the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 63–77.
  • Surcel, M., I. Zawadzki, and M. K. Yau, 2014: On the Filtering Properties of Ensemble Averaging for Storm-Scale Precipitation Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1093–1105.
  • VandenBerg, M.A., M.C. Coniglio, and A.J. Clark, 2014: Comparison of next-day convection-allowing forecasts of storm motion on 1-km and 4-km grids. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 878–893.

2013

  • Clark, A. J., J. Gao, P. T. Marsh, T. Smith, J. S. Kain, J. Correia, Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2013: Tornado path length forecasts from 2010–2011 using ensemble updraft helicity. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 387–407.
  • Coffer, B. E., L. C. Maudlin, P. G. Veals, A. J. Clark, 2013: Dryline position errors in experimental convection-allowing NSSL-WRF model forecasts and the operational NAM. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 746–761, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00092.1.
  • Coniglio, M. C., J. Correia, P. T. Marsh, F. Kong, 2013: Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer using Sounding Observations. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 842–862, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00026.1.
  • Gao, J. , T. M. Smith, D. J. Stensrud, C. Fu, K. Calhoun, K. L. Manross, J. Brogden, V. Lakshmanan, Y. Wang, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, M. Xue, 2013: A real-time weather-adaptive 3DVAR analysis system for severe weather detections and warnings. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 727–745
  • Goodman, Steven J., and Coauthors, 2012: The GOES-R Proving Ground: Accelerating user readiness for the next-generation geostationary environmental satellite system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1029–1040.
  • Ralph, F. Martin, and Coauthors, 2013: The Emergence of Weather-Focused Testbeds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1187–1211.
  • Johnson, Aaron, and Xuguang Wang, 2013: Object-based evaluation of a storm-scale ensemble during the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1079–1098.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2013: Object-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convection-Allowing Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3413–3425.
  • Kain, J. S., M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia, A. J. Clark, P. T. Marsh, C. L. Ziegler, V. Lakshmanan, S. D. Miller, S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, F. Kong, M. Xue, R. A. Sobash, A. R. Dean, I. L. Jirak, and C. J. Melick, 2013: A Feasibility Study for Probabilistic Convection Initiation Forecasts Based on Explicit Numerical Guidance. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1213–1225.
  • Schumacher, R. S., A. J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, 2013: Factors influencing the development and maintenance of nocturnal heavy-rain-producing convective systems in a storm-scale ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2778–2801. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00239.1.
  • Stensrud, D. J., L. J. Wicker, M. Xue, D. T. Dawson II, N. Yussouf, D. M. Wheatley, T. E. Thompson, N. A. Snook, T. M. Smith, A. D. Schenkmn, C. K. Potvin, E. R. Mansell, T. Lei, K. M. Kuhlman, Y. Jung, T. A. Jones, J. Gao, M. C. Coniglio, H. E. Brooks, K. A. Brewster, 2013: Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast. Atmospheric Research, 123, 2–16, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.004.
  • Stratman, D. R., M. C. Coniglio, S. E. Koch, M. Xue, 2013: Use of multiple verification methods to evaluate forecasts of convection from hot- and cold-start convection-allowing models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 119–138, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00022.1.

2012

  • Berenguer, Marc, Madalina Surcel, Isztar Zawadzki, Ming Xue, Fanyou Kong, 2012: The diurnal cycle of precipitation from continental radar mosaics and numerical weather prediction models. Part II: Intercomparison among numerical models and with nowcasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2689–2705.
  • Bikos, D., D. T. Lindsey, J. Otkin, J. Sieglaff, L. Grasso, C. Siewert, J. Correia, M. Coniglio, R. Rabin, J. S. Kain, S. Dembek, 2012: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High-Resolution Model Evaluation. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 784–795
  • Clark, A. J., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, J. C. Correia, 2012: An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 139, 55–74.
  • Clark, A. J., J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, J. Correia, M. Xue, F. Kong, 2012: Forecasting Tornado Pathlengths Using a Three-Dimensional Object Identification Algorithm Applied to Convection-Allowing Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1090–1113.
  • Coniglio, M. C., 2012: Verification of RUC 0-1-hour forecasts and SPC Mesoscale Analyses using VORTEX2 Soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 667–683.
  • Coniglio, M. C., S. F. Corfidi, J. S. Kain, 2012: Views on Applying RKW Theory: An Illustration Using the 8 May 2009 Derecho-Producing Convective System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1023–1043.
  • Coniglio, M. C., M. W. Douglas, D. D. Turner, and M. Fuentes, 2012: Evaluation of experimental atmospheric profiling systems and WRF-ARW PBL schemes during the 2012 NOAA/HWT Experimental Forecast Program. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper P9.4.
  • Heinselman, P. L., D. S. LaDue, and H. Lazrus, 2012: Exploring impacts of rapid-scan radar data on NWS Warning Decisions, Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1031–1044.
  • Johnson, Aaron, and Xuguang Wang, 2012: Verification and calibration of neighborhood and object-based probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a multimodel convection-allowing ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3054–3077.
  • Jirak, I. L., C. J. Melick, A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss, 2012: Investigation of an Automated Temporal Disaggregation Technique for Convective Outlooks during the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 10.2.
  • Jirak, I. L., S. J. Weiss, and C. J. Melick, 2012: The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper P9.5.
  • Kain, J. S., I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, J. Correia Jr., A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, C. J. Melick, S. D. Miller Jr., R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, V. Lakshmanan, D. D. Turner, D. A. Imy, and S. R. Dembek, 2012: An overview of the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 10.1.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., and P. Marsh, 2012: CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System for the NOAA HWT 2012 Spring Experiment: Impact of IC/LBC Perturbations. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper P9.6.
  • Lakshmanan, V, R. M. Rabin, J. A. Otkin, J. S. Kain, and S. R. Dembek, 2012: Visualizing Model Data Using A Fast Approximation of a Radiative Transfer Model. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29, 745–754.
  • Marsh, P. T., J. S. Kain, V. Lakshmanan, A. J. Clark, N. M. Hitchens, and J. Hardy, 2012: A method for calibrating deterministic forecasts of rare events. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 531–538.
  • Melick,C.J, I.L. Jirak, A.R. Dean, J. Correia Jr, and S.J. Weiss, 2012: Real Time Objective Verification of Convective Forecasts: 2012 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment. Preprints, 37th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Madison, WI, Natl. Wea. Assoc., P1.52.
  • Miller, S. D., Jr., J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, V. Lakshmanan, J. Correia Jr., D. A. Imy, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2012: Assessment of timing and coverage of convection during the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 10.3.
  • Stratman, D.R., M.C. Coniglio, S.E. Koch, and M. Xue, 2012: Use of Multiple Verification Methods to Evaluate Forecasts of Convection from Hot- and Cold-Start Convection-Allowing Models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 119–138, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00022.1.

2011

  • Clark, A. J., J. S. Kain, D. J. Stensrud, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du, 2011: Probabilistic precipitation forecast skill as a function of ensemble size and spatial scale in a convection-allowing ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1410–1418.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2011a: Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Part I: Development of the Object-Oriented Cluster Analysis Method for Precipitation Fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3673–3693.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2011b: Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Part II: Ensemble Clustering over the Whole Experiment Period. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3694–3710.
  • Novak, D., F. Barthold, R. Oravec, B. Sullivan, A. Orrison, M. Bodner,S. Weiss, A. Dean, I. Jirak, C. Melick, J. Kain, A. Clark, F. Kong, M. Xue, and Patrick Marsh, 2011: The Quantitative precipitation forecasting component of the 2011 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Preprints, 36th NWA Annual Meeting, Birmingham, AL.
  • Schaffer, C. J., W. A. Gallus, and M. Segal, 2011: Improving Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts of Convection through the Application of QPF–POP Relationships. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 319–336.
  • Sobash, R. A., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, 2011: Probabilistic Forecast Guidance for Severe Thunderstorms Based on the Identification of Extreme Phenomena in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 714–728.

2010

  • Casati, B., 2010: New developments of the intensity-scale technique within the Spatial Verification Methods Intercomparison Project. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 113–143.
  • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 594–612.
  • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: Convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensemble forecasts of a mesoscale convective vortex and associated severe weather environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1052–1081.
  • Clark, A. J., M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2010: Verification of probablistic forecasts for severe weather parameters in the 2010 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System and the operational SREF system. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.10.
  • Coniglio, M. C., K. L. Elmore, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, 2010: Evaluation of WRF model output for severe weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 408–427.
  • Coniglio, M. C., S. F. Corfidi, and J. S. Kain, 2010: Environment and early evolution of the 8 May 2009 derecho-producing convective system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1083–1102.
  • Gilleland, E., J. Lindström, and F. Lindgren, 2010: Analyzing the image warp forecast verification method on precipitation fields from the ICP. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1249–1262.
  • Gurka, J. J., S. J. Goodman, T. J. Schmit, C. W. Siewert, M. DeMaria, and G. T. Stano, 2010: Warning related satellite products to be demonstrated in the GOES-R Proving Ground. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.6.
  • Harless, A. R., I. L. Jirak, R. S. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: A report and feature-based verification study of the CAPS 2008 storm-scale ensemble forecasts for severe convective weather. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B2.
  • Harrold, M., T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider, 2010: Spatial verification of convective systems during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.9.
  • Huhn, J., M. Duquette, D. Bright, J. Racy, G. Grosshans, and B. Sherman, 2010: Translating an Ensemble Weather Forecast into Operational Disruption for the National Airspace System. 14th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 178.
  • Jensen, T., B. Brown, M. Coniglio, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and L. Nance, 2010a: Evaluation of experimental forecasts from the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment using both traditional and spatial methods. 20th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 527.
  • Jensen, T. L., M. Harrold, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, and R. S. Schneider, 2010b: An Overview of the objective evaluation performed during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.1.
  • Jirak, I. L., S. J. Weiss, C. J. Melick, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2010: Evaluation of the performance and distribution of hourly maximum fields from storm-scale ensemble forecasts. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.3.
  • Kain, J. S., M. Xue, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, F. Kong, T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, J. Gao, K. Brewster, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, C. S. Schwartz, and J. J. Levit, 2010: Assessing advances in the assimilation of radar data and other mesoscale observations within a collaborative forecasting-research environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1510–1521.
  • Kain, J. S., S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, J. L. Case, J. J. Levit, and R. A. Sobash, 2010: Extracting unique information from high resolution forecast models: Monitoring selected fields and phenomena every time step. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1536–1542.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, X. Wang, J. Gao, S. J. Weiss, A. Clark, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio, 2010: Evaluation of CAPS multi-model storm-scale ensemble forecast for the NOAA HWT 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P4.18.
  • Lack, S. A., G. L. Limpert, and N. I. Fox, 2010: An object-oriented multiscale verification scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 79–92.
  • Lindsey, D. T., L. Grasso, J. Sieglaff, J. A. Otkin, R. M. Rabin, and J. S. Kain, 2010: Simulating GOES-R satellite imagery from WRF output. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.5.
  • Manning, K. W., M. L. Weisman and A. J. Clark, 2010: Neighborhood-based evaluation of WRF-ARW precipitation forecasts for the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.5.
  • Marsh, P. T., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, R. Sobash, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and M. Xue, 2010: Investigating a fundamental component of a Warn-on-Forecast system in a collaborative real-time experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14.4.
  • Melick, C. J., I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2010: An environmental climatology of the CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system during the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.5.
  • Miller, S. D. Jr., G. W. Carbin, J. S. Kain, E. W. McCaul, C. J. Melick, and A. R. Dean, 2010: Preliminary investigation into lightning hazard prediction from high resolution model output. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4B.1.
  • Mittermaier, M, and N. Roberts, 2010: Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods: Identifying skillful spatial scales using the fractions skill score. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 343–354.
  • Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, M. S. Wandishin, 2010: Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: Model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 263–280.
  • Sobash, R., J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, D. R. Bright, and S. J. Weiss, 2010: Using convection-allowing models to produce forecast guidance for severe thunderstorm hazards via a "surrogate severe" approach. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14.3.
  • Weisman, M. L., C. Evans, and L. Bosa, 2010: The 8 May 2009 "Super Derecho": Analysis of a 3 km WRF-ARW realtime forecast. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3B4.
  • Weiss, S. J., A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, J. S. Kain, M. Coniglio, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, R. S. Schneider, and T. L. Jensen, 2010: An overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring forecasting experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.1.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, T. L. Jensen, and Y. H. Kuo, 2010: CAPS realtime storm scale ensemble and high resolution forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.3.

2009

  • Ahijevych, D., E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and E. E. Ebert, 2009: Application of spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP-gridded precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1485–1497.
  • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2009: A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1121–1140.
  • Davis, C. A., B. G. Brown, R. Bullock, and J. Halley-Gotway, 2009: The method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) applied to numerical forecasts from the 2005 NSSL/SPC spring program. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1252–1267.
  • Ebert, E. E., 2009: Neighborhood verification: A strategy for rewarding close forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1498–1510.
  • Ebert, E. E., and W. A. Gallus Jr., 2009: Toward better understanding of the contiguous rain area (CRA) method for spatial forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1401–1415.
  • Huhn, J., M. Duquette, D. R. Bright, S. J. Weiss, R. S. Schneider, J. Racy, and B. Sherman, 2009: Use of operationally available weather forecast products beyond 6 hours for air traffic strategic planning. 13th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.1.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2009: 16A.3 A real-time storm-scale ensemble forecast system: 2009 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Omaha, NE. paper 16A.3
  • Jewell, R., and J. Brimelow, 2009: Evaluation of Alberta hail growth model using severe hail proximity soundings from the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1592–1609.
  • Marzban, C., S. Sandgathe, H. Lyons, and N. Lederer, 2009: Three spatial verification techniques: Cluster analysis, variogram, and optical flow. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1457–1471.
  • Nachamkin, J. E., 2009: Application of the composite method to the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Dataset. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1390–1400.
  • Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2 vs. 4 km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3351–3372.
  • Sobash, R. A., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit, 2009: Forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Omaha, NE. CD-ROM 4B.6
  • Stensrud, D. J., L. J. Wicker, K. E. Kelleher, M. Xue, M. P. Foster, J. T. Schaefer, R. S. Schneider, S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, J. T. Ferree, and J. P. Tuell, 2009: Convective-scale warn-on-forecast system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1487–1499.
  • Wernli, H., C. Hofmann, and M. Zimmer, 2009: Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Application of the SAL technique. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1472–1484.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2009: CAPS realtime 4 km multi-model convection-allowing ensemble and 1 km convection-resolving forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Omaha, NE. paper 16A.2

2008

  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. L. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. B. Weber, K. W. Thomas, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 931–952.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, S. R. Dembek, J. J. Levit, D. R. Bright, J. L. Case, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, R. A. Sobash, and C. S. Schwartz, 2008: Severe-weather forecast guidance from the first generation of large-domain convection-allowing models: Challenges and opportunities. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 12.1
  • Kong, F, M. Xue, K. K. Droegemeier, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, and J. Du, 2008: Real-Time Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast 2008 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 12.3.
  • Sobash, R. A., D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, J. S. Kain, M. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit, 2008: Severe storm forecast guidance based on explicit identification of convective phenomena in WRF-model forecasts. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 11.3.
  • Weisman, M. L., C. Davis, W. Wang, K. W. Manning, and J. B. Klemp, 2008: Experiences with 0–36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 407–437
  • Weiss, S. J., M. E. Pyle, Z. Janjic, D. R. Bright, and G. J. DiMego, 2008: The operational High Resolution Window WRF model runs at NCEP: Advantages of multiple model runs for severe convective weather forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM P10.8
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2008: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2008 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 12.2

2007

  • Coniglio, M. C., H. E. Brooks, S. J. Weiss, and S. F. Corfidi, 2007: Forecasting the maintenance of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 556–570.
  • Coniglio, M. C., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, Z. I. Janjic, M. Pyle, J. Du, and D. Stensrud, 2007: Evaluating WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 11A.2.
  • Coniglio, M. C., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, and Z. I. Janjic, 2007: Evaluating storm-scale model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, Trieste, Italy, CD-ROM, 03.11.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du, 2007: Preliminary analysis on the real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced as a part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.2.
  • Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, and M. Xue, 2007: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 6B.4.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2007: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.1.

2006

  • Baldwin, M. E., and J. S. Kain, 2006: Sensitivity of several performance measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 636–648.
  • Bright, D.R. and M.S. Wandishin, 2006: Post Processed Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Convective Storms. Preprints, 18th Conf. Probability and Statistics in the Atmos. Sciences, Atlanta, GA., Amer. Meteor. Soc.
  • Bukovsky, M. S., J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real? Wea. Forecasting, 21, 307–324.
  • Elmore, K. L., M. E. Baldwin, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Field significance revisited: spatial bias errors in forecasts as applied to the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 519–531.
  • Elmore, K. L., D. M. Schultz, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The behavior of synoptic-scale errors in the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3355–3366.
  • Homar, V., D. J. Stensrud, J. J. Levit, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Value of human-generated perturbations in short-range ensemble forecasts of severe weather. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 347–363.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 167–181.
  • Karan, H. and K. Knupp, 2006: Mobile Integrated Profiler System (MIPS) observations of low-level convergent boundaries during IHOP. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 92–112.
  • Stensrud, D. J., and Coauthors, 2006: The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 491–498.
  • Weckwerth, T. M., and D. B. Parsons, 2006: A review of convection initiation and motivation for IHOP_2002. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 5–22.
  • Wilson, J. W., and R. D. Roberts, 2006: Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 23–47.

2005

  • Banacos, P. C., D. M. Schultz, 2005: The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 351–366. [pdf]
  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and S. Lakshmivarahan, 2005: Development of an automated classification procedure for rainfall systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 844–862.
  • Bright, D.R., M.S. Wandishin, R.E. Jewell, and S.J. Weiss, 2005: A physically based parameter for lightning prediction and its calibration in ensemble forecasts. Preprints, Conf. Meteor. Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM (4.3).
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, G. W. Carbin, D. A. Bright, J. J. Levit, and J. A. Hart, 2005: Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, D. C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 2A.5.
  • Koch, S. E., B. Ferrier, M. Stolinga, E. Szoke , S. J. Weiss, and J. S. Kain, 2005: The use of simulated radar reflectivity fields in the diagnosis of mesoscale phenomena from high-resolution WRF model forecasts. Preprints, 11th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J4J.7
  • Wandishin, M. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. L. Mullen, and J. V. Cortinas, 2005: Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 609–626.

2004

  • Bright, D. R. and P. Nutter, 2004: On the challenges of identifying the “best” ensemble member in operational forecasting. Preprints, 16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J11.3.
  • Jewell, R. E., and J. C. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P9.5
  • Kain, J. S., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170–181.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, and J. J. Levit, 2004: Subjective verification of deterministic models during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 9.3
  • Szoke, E. J., J. Brown, and B. Shaw, 2004: Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J13.6.
  • Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2004: Examination of several different versions of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, paper 17.1

2003

  • Bright, D. R., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, and D. J. Stensrud, 2003: The utility of short-range ensemble forecasts in real-time prediction of severe convective weather at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 2.8.
  • Bright, D. R., M. S. Wandishin, S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, J. S. Kain, and D. J. Stensrud: Evaluation of short-range ensemble forecasts during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P15.5.
  • Ebert, E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, M. E. Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 481–492.
  • Ebert, E. E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, and M. E. Baldwin, 2003: Supplement to The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 492–492.
  • Elmore, K. L., S. J. Weiss, P. C. Banacos, 2003: Operational ensemble cloud model forecasts: Some preliminary results. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 953–964. [AMS]
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, 2003: Parameterized Updraft Mass Flux as a Predictor of Convective Intensity. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 106–116. [AMS]
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, M. P. Kay, G. Carbin, 2003: Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 847–860. [AMS]
  • Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, R. S. Schneider, and H. E. Brooks, 2003: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1797–1806.

2002

  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, M. P. Kay, 2002: Properties of the convection scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 1063–1079. [AMS]
  • Baldwin, M. E., S. Lakshmivarahan, and J. S. Kain, 2002: Development of an "events-oriented" approach to forecast verification. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 210–213.
  • Baldwin, M. E., and M. S. Wandishin, 2002: Determining the resolved spatial scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85–88.
  • Bothwell, P. D., J. A. Hart, and R. L. Thompson, 2002: An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J117–J120.
  • Bukovsky, M. S., P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin, 2002: Evaluation of Eta model forecasts of mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J121–J124.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay, 2002: The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 135–138.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and A. Just, 2002: Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative research/operational environment. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J1–J6.

2001

  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss, 2001: Utilizing the Eta model with two different convective parameterizations to predict convective initiation and evolution at the SPC. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 91–95.