Experimental Forecast Program

NOAA FORECASTERS! Participate in the 2022 Spring Forecast Experiment! (restricted access, NOAA only)

The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) is focused on the use of computer models of the atmosphere to improve predictions of hazardous and convective weather events from a few hours to a week in advance, in an area from over several counties to the entire continental United States. The EFP supports the National Weather Service’s goal to increase lead-time and accuracy for weather and water warnings and forecasts.

The NOAA HWT EFP Spring Forecasting Experiment is a yearly project that investigates the use of convection-allowing model forecasts as guidance for the prediction of hazardous convective weather. A variety of model output is examined and evaluated daily, and experimental forecasts are created and verified to test the applicability of cutting-edge tools in a simulated forecasting environment. The variety of model output allows us to explore different types of guidance, including products derived from both ensembles and deterministic forecasts, and to provide focused feedback to model developers.