EFP: 2010 Spring Experiment Summary

Working Hypotheses

  1. Numerical modelers can learn to incorporate more operational relevance in their research efforts if they work closely with forecasters in simulated operational forecasting exercises.
  2. Operational forecasters can make more skillful interpretations of numerical model guidance and influence the direction of model development if they work with numerical modelers in simulated operational forecasting exercises.

Specific Objectives

Research Perspective

  1. Examine the sensitivity of convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts to model physical parameterizations, including new planetary-boundary layer and double-moment microphysical parameterizations in the WRF model.
  2. Work with Developmental Testbed Center scientists in the development and testing of traditional and new objective measures to provide useful verification of 1-hr simulated composite reflectivity and precipitation forecasts.
  3. Develop, apply, and evaluate new data sampling strategies, diagnostic tools, and visualization techniques to help provide unique high-resolution guidance for forecasting high impact weather.
  4. Assess and compare the potential value of forecast guidance from deterministic models with identical domains and configurations but differing horizontal grid spacing (1 km vs. 4 km).

Operational Perspective

  1. Explore the applicability of the HWT paradigm for collaborations between research and operations to areas beyond severe convection.
  2. Explore the ability of CAM systems to provide useful guidance for forecasts of
    • severe convection, focusing on improving probabilistic forecasts of initiation, evolution, mode, and intensity of convective storms;
    • convective aviation hazards, focusing on probabilistic forecasts of timing, location, coverage, porosity, and vertical extent of thunderstorms and thunderstorm complexes;
    • Heavy precipitation, focusing on probabilistic forecasts of 6-hourly precipitation amounts.
  3. Explore the utility of GOES-R Proving Ground products as part of an integrated data suite to support severe weather forecaster decision-making.
  4. Compare the utility of mesoscale ensemble guidance from the SREF to convection-allowing guidance from the CAPS 4-km ensemble (SSEF)

Preliminary Results

  1. Subjective assessments suggest that model-forecast updates often result in more skillful model guidance (skill inversely related to forecast lead time), but not always. When multiple convective cycles were involved, forecast skill was strongly dependent on how well any previous convection in the region was initialized and its evolution predicted; sensitivities increase in more weakly forced environments.
  2. Probabilistic guidance from the SSEF appeared to add considerable value compared to that from the SREF, especially for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) where it was predicted to have a “transformational” impact on forecasting operations at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
  3. Convective initiation, evolution, and mode forecasts from 1 km and 4 km WRF configurations generally looked more similar to each other than to observations and appeared to be of about equal value, on average; there was some suggestion of better guidance from the 1 km configuration for the Southern Plains tornado outbreak on 10 May.
  4. There was considerable sensitivity to microphysical parameterization in the CAPS ensemble, including systematic differences in cold-pool strength and corresponding propagation characteristics of simulated mesoscale convective systems.
Composite frequencies of observed rainfall

Composite frequencies of observed rainfall greater than 0.50-in. relative to grid-points forecasting rainfall greater than 0.50-in at forecast hour 30 from SSEF members using (a) Thompson, (b) WSM6, (c) WDM6, and (d) Morrison microphysics parameterizations. The boldface dot in each panel makes the center of the composite domain. [+]

Composite frequencies of observed rainfall greater than 0.50-in. relative to grid-points forecasting rainfall greater than 0.50-in at forecast hour 30 from SSEF members using (a) Thompson, (b) WSM6, (c) WDM6, and (d) Morrison microphysics parameterizations. The boldface dot in each panel makes the center of the composite domain.

Payoff

  1. Unique model-output fields, such as simulated satellite imagery and simulated lightning, showed promise for operational forecasting and were introduced as guidance products in SPC daily forecasting operations following the experiment.
  2. HPC introduced numerous CAM-based guidance products into forecasting operations, anticipating a significant positive impact on forecast skill.
  3. Participants from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and HPC used their experiences in the HWT to design new testbeds focused on their specific forecasting challenges.

Related Publications

  • Clark, A. J., J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, J. Corriea, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2012: Forecasting tornado path lengths using a 3-dimensional object identification algorithm applied to convection-allowing forecasts. Wea. Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00147.1, in press.
  • Clark, A. J., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, and J. Correia, Jr., 2012: An overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 55–74.
  • Feltz, W. F. K. Bah, K. Bedka, L. Cronce, J. Gerth, J. Kain, S. Lindstrom, J. Otkin, T. Schmit, J. Sieglaff, C. Siewert, and R. Rabin, 2010: UW-CIMSS GOES-R Proving Ground Participation in Storm Prediction Center Hazardous Weather Testbed. Preprints, 17th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Annapolis, MD. Paper P9.
  • Gurka, J. J., S. J. Goodman, T. J. Schmit, C. W. Siewert, M. DeMaria, and G. T. Stano, 2010: Warning related satellite products to be demonstrated in the GOES-R Proving Ground. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.6.
  • Harrold, M., T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider, 2010: Spatial verification of convective systems during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.9.
  • Huhn, J., M. Duquette, D. Bright, J. Racy, G. Grosshans, and B. Sherman, 2010: Translating an Ensemble Weather Forecast into Operational Disruption for the National Airspace System. 14th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 178.
  • Jensen, T. L., M. Harrold, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, and R. S. Schneider, 2010b: An Overview of the objective evaluation performed during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.1.
  • Jensen, T., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, M. Harrold, B. Brown, M. Xue, J. Kong, P. T. Marsh, M. C. Coniglio, and R. Schneider, 2010: The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Objective Evaluation Performed During the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2010 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 11th WRF Users’ Workshop, Boulder, CO. Paper P.48
  • Jirak, I. L., S. J. Weiss, C. J. Melick, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2010: Evaluation of the performance and distribution of hourly maximum fields from storm-scale ensemble forecasts. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.3.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, X. Wang, J. Gao, S. J. Weiss, A. Clark, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio, 2010: Evaluation of CAPS multi-model storm-scale ensemble forecast for the NOAA HWT 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P4.18.
  • Lindsey, D. T., L. Grasso, J. Sieglaff, J. A. Otkin, R. M. Rabin, and J. S. Kain, 2010: Simulating GOES-R satellite imagery from WRF output. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.5. Manning, K. W., M. L. Weisman and A. J. Clark, 2010: Neighborhood-based evaluation of WRF-ARW precipitation forecasts for the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.5.
  • Marsh, P. T., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, R. Sobash, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and M. Xue, 2010: Investigating a fundamental component of a Warn-on-Forecast system in a collaborative real-time experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14.4.
  • Melick, C. J., I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2010: An environmental climatology of the CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system during the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.5.
  • Miller, S. D. Jr., G. W. Carbin, J. S. Kain, E. W. McCaul, C. J. Melick, and A. R. Dean, 2010: Preliminary investigation into lightning hazard prediction from high resolution model output. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4B.1.
  • Stratman, D. R., M. C. Coniglio, S. E. Koch, and M. Xue, 2012: Use of multiple verification methods to evaluate forecasts of convection from hot- and cold-start convection-allowing models. Weather and Forecasting, conditionally accepted
  • Weiss, S. J., A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, J. S. Kain, M. Coniglio, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, R. S. Schneider, and T. L. Jensen, 2010: An overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.1.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, T. L. Jensen, and Y. H. Kuo, 2010: CAPS realtime storm scale ensemble and high resolution forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.3