EFP: 2000 Spring Experiment Summary

Working Hypotheses

  1. Numerical modelers can learn to incorporate more operational relevance in their research efforts if they work closely with forecasters in an experimental forecasting exercise.
  2. Operational forecasters can make more skillful interpretations of numerical model output if they work with numerical modelers in an experimental forecasting exercise.

Specific Objectives

  1. Research perspective: To identify targets of opportunity for modifying operational and experimental forecast models through interactions between forecasters and modelers.
  2. Operational perspective: To evaluate a RUC-based surface objective analysis technique and multiple hail-size forecasting algorithms.

Preliminary Results

  1. Model vertical structures (output soundings) and measures of simulated thunderstorm intensity were identified as scientific issues of relevance and mutual interest, motivating further collaborative research that culminated in formal publications in 2002 and 2003, respectively.
  2. RUC-based realtime mesoscale environmental analysis techniques were validated and refined.
  3. Identified numerous weaknesses in traditional hail-size forecasting algorithms.


  1. RUC-based realtime mesoscale environmental analysis techniques were subsequently adopted for operational use.
  2. Identification of weaknesses in hail-size forecasting algorithms lead to testing of the Brimelow hail model, which was adopted into operations in Spring 2003.

Related Publications

  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and M. P. Kay, 2002: Properties of the convection scheme in NCEP's Eta model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1063–1079.
  • Jewell, R. E., and J. C. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P9.5
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss, 2001: Utilizing the Eta model with two different convective parameterizations to predict convective initiation and evolution at the SPC. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 91–95.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay, 2002: The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 135–138.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, 2003: Parameterized updraft mass flux as a predictor of convective intensity. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 106–116.