Spring Experiment

The NOAA HWT Spring Experiment is a yearly experiment that investigates the use of convection-allowing model forecasts as guidance for the prediction of severe convective weather. A variety of model output is examined and evaluated daily during the experiment and experimental severe weather forecasts are created and verified. The variety of model output allows us to explore different types of guidance, including products derived from both ensembles and deterministic forecasts.

The 2016 Spring Experiment will be held from May 2nd through June 3rd in the HWT facility at the National Weather Center in Norman. The Experiment is scheduled to run Monday through Friday from 8am to 4pm. More information about this year's Experiment can be found below in the 2016 Spring Experiment Operations Plan.

Day 1 Ensemble Summaries

Day 1 total severe forecasts, derived from an object based approach to extracting model proxy severe reports. Apples to apples comparison with reports using Gaussian smoother and neighborhood approach.

Model Proxy Severe Probabilities: Full Period
Verification: Full Period
Model Proxy Severe Probabilities: 4 hr
Verification: 4 hr

Day 1 Ensemble Summaries

Day 1 Tornado probabilities derived from updraft helicity 0-3km. Completely untested, subject to change at any time.

Model Proxy Severe Probabilities: Full Period
Verification: Full Period

Day 2 Ensemble Summaries

Day 2 total severe forecasts, assuming available, along with verification. Added UH exceedance plots to monitor the physics dependent UH characteristics for both current day and experiment-to-date sums.

Model Proxy Severe Probabilities: Full Period
Verification: Full Period