The NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment is a yearly experiment that investigates the use of convection-allowing model forecasts as guidance for the prediction of hazardous convective weather. A variety of model output is examined and evaluated daily, and experimental forecasts are created and verified to test the applicability of cutting-edge tools in a simulated forecasting environment. The variety of model output allows us to explore different types of guidance, including products derived from both ensembles and deterministic forecasts, and to provide focused feedback to model developers.
The 2015 Spring Forecasting Experiment will be held from May 4th through June 5th in the HWT facility at the National Weather Center in Norman. The Experiment is scheduled to run Monday through Friday from 8am to 4pm. More information about this year's Experiment can be found below in the 2015 Spring Forecasting Experiment Operations Plan (see below).
- Model Guidance Graphics
- HWT Model Comparison Page
- Objective Verification: 1-km Sim. Reflectivity [Images w/ Scores]
- Objective Verification: 1-km Sim. Reflectivity [Score Summary]
- Experimental Ensemble graphics - All Members
- Experimental Ensemble Proxy Severe Forecast | Verification
- Experimental Ensemble 4h Proxy Severe - Forecast | Verification
- Experimental Forecasts
- Experimental Forecast Verification - Severe Convection
- Participants: Hourly Total Severe Probabilistic Forecasts
- Participants: 4-h Ind. Hazard Probabilistic Forecasts
- Set Forecast Centerpoint
- Experimental Forecast Generation - Ind. Hazard (Restricted)
- Experimental Forecast Generation - Total Severe (Restricted)