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NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Publications

2014

library books
  • Burghardt, Brock J., Clark Evans, Paul J. Roebber, 2014: Assessing the Predictability of Convection Initiation in the High Plains Using an Object-Based Approach. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 403–418.
  • Cintineo, R., J. A. Otkin, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2014: Evaluating the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer and Cloud Microphysical Parameterization Schemes in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts Using Synthetic GOES-13 Satellite Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 163–182.
  • Clark, A. J., R. Bullock, T. Jensen, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2014: Application of object-based time-domain diagnostics for tracking precipitation systems in convection-allowing models. Wea. Forecasting, (In Press).
  • Duda, J. D., X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2014: Using Varied Microphysics to Account for Uncertainty in Warm-Season QPF in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., (In Press).
  • Fierro, Alexandre O., Jidong Gao, Conrad L. Ziegler, Edward R. Mansell, Donald R. MacGorman, Scott R. Dembek, 2014: Evaluation of a Cloud-Scale Lightning Data Assimilation Technique and a 3DVAR Method for the Analysis and Short-Term Forecast of the 29 June 2012 Derecho Event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 183–202.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, G. Zhao, Y. Wang, K. W. Thomas, and K. A. Brewster, 2014: Multiscale Characteristics and Evolution of Perturbations for Warm Season Convection-Allowing Precipitation Forecasts: Dependence on Background Flow and Method of Perturbation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1053–1073.
  • Ralph, F. Martin, and Coauthors, 2013: The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1187–1211.
  • Smith, Travis M., and Coauthors, 2014: Examination of a Real-Time 3DVAR Analysis System in the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 63–77.
  • Surcel, M., I. Zawadzki, and M. K. Yau, 2014: On the Filtering Properties of Ensemble Averaging for Storm-Scale Precipitation Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1093–1105.
  • VandenBerg, M.A., M.C. Coniglio, and A.J. Clark, 2014: Comparison of next-day convection-allowing forecasts of storm motion on 1-km and 4-km grids. Wea. Forecasting, (In Press).

2013

  • Clark, A. J., J. Gao, P. T. Marsh, T. Smith, J. S. Kain, J. Correia, Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2013: Tornado path length forecasts from 2010–2011 using ensemble updraft helicity. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 387–407.
  • Coffer, B. E., L. C. Maudlin, P. G. Veals, A. J. Clark, 2013: Dryline position errors in experimental convection-allowing NSSL-WRF model forecasts and the operational NAM. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 746–761, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00092.1.
  • Coniglio, M. C., J. Correia, P. T. Marsh, F. Kong, 2013: Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer using Sounding Observations. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 842–862, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00026.1.
  • Gao, J. , T. M. Smith, D. J. Stensrud, C. Fu, K. Calhoun, K. L. Manross, J. Brogden, V. Lakshmanan, Y. Wang, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, M. Xue, 2013: A real-time weather-adaptive 3DVAR analysis system for severe weather detections and warnings. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 727–745
  • Goodman, Steven J., and Coauthors, 2012: The GOES-R Proving Ground: Accelerating user readiness for the next-generation geostationary environmental satellite system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1029–1040.
  • Ralph, F. Martin, and Coauthors, 2013: The Emergence of Weather-Focused Testbeds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1187–1211.
  • Johnson, Aaron, and Xuguang Wang, 2013: Object-based evaluation of a storm-scale ensemble during the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1079–1098.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2013: Object-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convection-Allowing Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.141, 3413–3425.
  • Kain, J. S., M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia, A. J. Clark, P. T. Marsh, C. L. Ziegler, V. Lakshmanan, S. D. Miller, S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, F. Kong, M. Xue, R. A. Sobash, A. R. Dean, I. L. Jirak, and C. J. Melick, 2013: A Feasibility Study for Probabilistic Convection Initiation Forecasts Based on Explicit Numerical Guidance. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1213–1225.
  • Schumacher, R. S., A. J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, 2013: Factors influencing the development and maintenance of nocturnal heavy-rain-producing convective systems in a storm-scale ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2778–2801. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00239.1.
  • Stensrud, D. J., L. J. Wicker, M. Xue, D. T. Dawson II, N. Yussouf, D. M. Wheatley, T. E. Thompson, N. A. Snook, T. M. Smith, A. D. Schenkmn, C. K. Potvin, E. R. Mansell, T. Lei, K. M. Kuhlman, Y. Jung, T. A. Jones, J. Gao, M. C. Coniglio, H. E. Brooks, K. A. Brewster, 2013: Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast. Atmospheric Research, 123, 2–16, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.004.
  • Stratman, D. R., M. C. Coniglio, S. E. Koch, M. Xue, 2013: Use of multiple verification methods to evaluate forecasts of convection from hot- and cold-start convection-allowing models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 119–138, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00022.1.

2012

  • Berenguer, Marc, Madalina Surcel, Isztar Zawadzki, Ming Xue, Fanyou Kong, 2012: The diurnal cycle of precipitation from continental radar mosaics and numerical weather prediction models. Part II: Intercomparison among numerical models and with nowcasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2689–2705.
  • Bikos, D., D. T. Lindsey, J. Otkin, J. Sieglaff, L. Grasso, C. Siewert, J. Correia, M. Coniglio, R. Rabin, J. S. Kain, S. Dembek, 2012: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High-Resolution Model Evaluation. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 784–795
  • Clark, A. J., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, J. C. Correia, 2012: An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 139, 55–74.
  • Clark, A. J., J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, J. Correia, M. Xue, F. Kong, 2012: Forecasting Tornado Pathlengths Using a Three-Dimensional Object Identification Algorithm Applied to Convection-Allowing Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1090–1113.
  • Coniglio, M. C., 2012: Verification of RUC 0-1-hour forecasts and SPC Mesoscale Analyses using VORTEX2 Soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 667–683.
  • Coniglio, M. C., S. F. Corfidi, J. S. Kain, 2012: Views on Applying RKW Theory: An Illustration Using the 8 May 2009 Derecho-Producing Convective System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1023–1043.
  • Coniglio, M. C., M. W. Douglas, D. D. Turner, and M. Fuentes, 2012: Evaluation of experimental atmospheric profiling systems and WRF-ARW PBL schemes during the 2012 NOAA/HWT Experimental Forecast Program. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper P9.4.
  • Heinselman, P. L., D. S. LaDue, and H. Lazrus, 2012: Exploring impacts of rapid-scan radar data on NWS Warning Decisions, Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1031–1044.
  • Johnson, Aaron, and Xuguang Wang, 2012: Verification and calibration of neighborhood and object-based probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a multimodel convection-allowing ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3054–3077.
  • Jirak, I. L., C. J. Melick, A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss, 2012: Investigation of an Automated Temporal Disaggregation Technique for Convective Outlooks during the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 10.2.
  • Jirak, I. L., S. J. Weiss, and C. J. Melick, 2012: The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper P9.5.
  • Kain, J. S., I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, J. Correia Jr., A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, C. J. Melick, S. D. Miller Jr., R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, V. Lakshmanan, D. D. Turner, D. A. Imy, and S. R. Dembek, 2012: An overview of the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 10.1.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., and P. Marsh, 2012: CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System for the NOAA HWT 2012 Spring Experiment: Impact of IC/LBC Perturbations. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper P9.6.
  • Lakshmanan, V, R. M. Rabin, J. A. Otkin, J. S. Kain, and S. R. Dembek, 2012: Visualizing Model Data Using A Fast Approximation of a Radiative Transfer Model. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29, 745–754.
  • Marsh, P. T., J. S. Kain, V. Lakshmanan, A. J. Clark, N. M. Hitchens, and J. Hardy, 2012: A method for calibrating deterministic forecasts of rare events. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 531–538.
  • Melick,C.J, I.L. Jirak, A.R. Dean, J. Correia Jr, and S.J. Weiss, 2012: Real Time Objective Verification of Convective Forecasts: 2012 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment. Preprints, 37th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Madison, WI, Natl. Wea. Assoc., P1.52.
  • Miller, S. D., Jr., J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, V. Lakshmanan, J. Correia Jr., D. A. Imy, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2012: Assessment of timing and coverage of convection during the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Extended Abstracts, 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 10.3.
  • Stratman, D.R., M.C. Coniglio, S.E. Koch, and M. Xue, 2012: Use of Multiple Verification Methods to Evaluate Forecasts of Convection from Hot- and Cold-Start Convection-Allowing Models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 119–138, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00022.1.

2011

  • Clark, A. J., J. S. Kain, D. J. Stensrud, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du, 2011: Probabilistic precipitation forecast skill as a function of ensemble size and spatial scale in a convection-allowing ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1410–1418.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2011a: Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Part I: Development of the Object-Oriented Cluster Analysis Method for Precipitation Fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3673–3693.
  • Johnson, A., X. Wang, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2011b: Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Part II: Ensemble Clustering over the Whole Experiment Period. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3694–3710.
  • Novak, D., F. Barthold, R. Oravec, B. Sullivan, A. Orrison, M. Bodner,S. Weiss, A. Dean, I. Jirak, C. Melick, J. Kain, A. Clark, F. Kong, M. Xue, and Patrick Marsh, 2011: The Quantitative precipitation forecasting component of the 2011 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Preprints, 36th NWA Annual Meeting, Birmingham, AL.
  • Schaffer, C. J., W. A. Gallus, and M. Segal, 2011: Improving Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts of Convection through the Application of QPF–POP Relationships. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 319–336.
  • Sobash, R. A., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, 2011: Probabilistic Forecast Guidance for Severe Thunderstorms Based on the Identification of Extreme Phenomena in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 714–728.

2010

  • Casati, B., 2010: New developments of the intensity-scale technique within the Spatial Verification Methods Intercomparison Project. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 113–143.
  • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 594–612.
  • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: Convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensemble forecasts of a mesoscale convective vortex and associated severe weather environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1052–1081.
  • Clark, A. J., M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2010: Verification of probablistic forecasts for severe weather parameters in the 2010 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System and the operational SREF system. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.10.
  • Coniglio, M. C., K. L. Elmore, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, 2010: Evaluation of WRF model output for severe weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 408–427.
  • Coniglio, M. C., S. F. Corfidi, and J. S. Kain, 2010: Environment and early evolution of the 8 May 2009 derecho-producing convective system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1083–1102.
  • Gilleland, E., J. Lindström, and F. Lindgren, 2010: Analyzing the image warp forecast verification method on precipitation fields from the ICP. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1249–1262.
  • Gurka, J. J., S. J. Goodman, T. J. Schmit, C. W. Siewert, M. DeMaria, and G. T. Stano, 2010: Warning related satellite products to be demonstrated in the GOES-R Proving Ground. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.6.
  • Harless, A. R., I. L. Jirak, R. S. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: A report and feature-based verification study of the CAPS 2008 storm-scale ensemble forecasts for severe convective weather. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B2.
  • Harrold, M., T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider, 2010: Spatial verification of convective systems during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.9.
  • Huhn, J., M. Duquette, D. Bright, J. Racy, G. Grosshans, and B. Sherman, 2010: Translating an Ensemble Weather Forecast into Operational Disruption for the National Airspace System. 14th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 178.
  • Jensen, T., B. Brown, M. Coniglio, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and L. Nance, 2010a: Evaluation of experimental forecasts from the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment using both traditional and spatial methods. 20th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 527.
  • Jensen, T. L., M. Harrold, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, and R. S. Schneider, 2010b: An Overview of the objective evaluation performed during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.1.
  • Jirak, I. L., S. J. Weiss, C. J. Melick, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2010: Evaluation of the performance and distribution of hourly maximum fields from storm-scale ensemble forecasts. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.3.
  • Kain, J. S., M. Xue, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, F. Kong, T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, J. Gao, K. Brewster, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, C. S. Schwartz, and J. J. Levit, 2010: Assessing advances in the assimilation of radar data and other mesoscale observations within a collaborative forecasting-research environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1510–1521.
  • Kain, J. S., S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, J. L. Case, J. J. Levit, and R. A. Sobash, 2010: Extracting unique information from high resolution forecast models: Monitoring selected fields and phenomena every time step. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1536–1542.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, X. Wang, J. Gao, S. J. Weiss, A. Clark, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio, 2010: Evaluation of CAPS multi-model storm-scale ensemble forecast for the NOAA HWT 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P4.18.
  • Lack, S. A., G. L. Limpert, and N. I. Fox, 2010: An object-oriented multiscale verification scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 79–92.
  • Lindsey, D. T., L. Grasso, J. Sieglaff, J. A. Otkin, R. M. Rabin, and J. S. Kain, 2010: Simulating GOES-R satellite imagery from WRF output. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P7.5.
  • Manning, K. W., M. L. Weisman and A. J. Clark, 2010: Neighborhood-based evaluation of WRF-ARW precipitation forecasts for the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.5.
  • Marsh, P. T., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, R. Sobash, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and M. Xue, 2010: Investigating a fundamental component of a Warn-on-Forecast system in a collaborative real-time experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14.4.
  • Melick, C. J., I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas, 2010: An environmental climatology of the CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system during the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.5.
  • Miller, S. D. Jr., G. W. Carbin, J. S. Kain, E. W. McCaul, C. J. Melick, and A. R. Dean, 2010: Preliminary investigation into lightning hazard prediction from high resolution model output. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4B.1.
  • Mittermaier, M, and N. Roberts, 2010: Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods: Identifying skillful spatial scales using the fractions skill score. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 343–354.
  • Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, M. S. Wandishin, 2010: Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: Model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 263–280.
  • Sobash, R., J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, D. R. Bright, and S. J. Weiss, 2010: Using convection-allowing models to produce forecast guidance for severe thunderstorm hazards via a "surrogate severe" approach. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14.3.
  • Weisman, M. L., C. Evans, and L. Bosa, 2010: The 8 May 2009 "Super Derecho": Analysis of a 3 km WRF-ARW realtime forecast. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3B4.
  • Weiss, S. J., A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. Siewert, R. A. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, J. S. Kain, M. Coniglio, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, R. S. Schneider, and T. L. Jensen, 2010: An overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring forecasting experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.1.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, T. L. Jensen, and Y. H. Kuo, 2010: CAPS realtime storm scale ensemble and high resolution forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.3.

2009

  • Ahijevych, D., E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and E. E. Ebert, 2009: Application of spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP-gridded precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1485–1497.
  • Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2009: A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1121–1140.
  • Davis, C. A., B. G. Brown, R. Bullock, and J. Halley-Gotway, 2009: The method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) applied to numerical forecasts from the 2005 NSSL/SPC spring program. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1252–1267.
  • Ebert, E. E., 2009: Neighborhood verification: A strategy for rewarding close forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1498–1510.
  • Ebert, E. E., and W. A. Gallus Jr., 2009: Toward better understanding of the contiguous rain area (CRA) method for spatial forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1401–1415.
  • Huhn, J., M. Duquette, D. R. Bright, S. J. Weiss, R. S. Schneider, J. Racy, and B. Sherman, 2009: Use of operationally available weather forecast products beyond 6 hours for air traffic strategic planning. 13th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.1.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2009: 16A.3 A real-time storm-scale ensemble forecast system: 2009 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Omaha, NE. paper 16A.3
  • Jewell, R., and J. Brimelow, 2009: Evaluation of Alberta hail growth model using severe hail proximity soundings from the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1592–1609.
  • Marzban, C., S. Sandgathe, H. Lyons, and N. Lederer, 2009: Three spatial verification techniques: Cluster analysis, variogram, and optical flow. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1457–1471.
  • Nachamkin, J. E., 2009: Application of the composite method to the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Dataset. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1390–1400.
  • Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2 vs. 4 km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3351–3372.
  • Sobash, R. A., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit, 2009: Forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Omaha, NE. CD-ROM 4B.6
  • Stensrud, D. J., L. J. Wicker, K. E. Kelleher, M. Xue, M. P. Foster, J. T. Schaefer, R. S. Schneider, S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, J. T. Ferree, and J. P. Tuell, 2009: Convective-scale warn-on-forecast system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1487–1499.
  • Wernli, H., C. Hofmann, and M. Zimmer, 2009: Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Application of the SAL technique. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1472–1484.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2009: CAPS realtime 4 km multi-model convection-allowing ensemble and 1 km convection-resolving forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Omaha, NE. paper 16A.2

2008

  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. L. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. B. Weber, K. W. Thomas, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 931–952.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, S. R. Dembek, J. J. Levit, D. R. Bright, J. L. Case, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, R. A. Sobash, and C. S. Schwartz, 2008: Severe-weather forecast guidance from the first generation of large-domain convection-allowing models: Challenges and opportunities. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 12.1
  • Kong, F, M. Xue, K. K. Droegemeier, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, and J. Du, 2008: Real-Time Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast 2008 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 12.3.
  • Sobash, R. A., D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, J. S. Kain, M. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit, 2008: Severe storm forecast guidance based on explicit identification of convective phenomena in WRF-model forecasts. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 11.3.
  • Weisman, M. L., C. Davis, W. Wang, K. W. Manning, and J. B. Klemp, 2008: Experiences with 0–36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 407–437
  • Weiss, S. J., M. E. Pyle, Z. Janjic, D. R. Bright, and G. J. DiMego, 2008: The operational High Resolution Window WRF model runs at NCEP: Advantages of multiple model runs for severe convective weather forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM P10.8
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2008: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2008 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA. CD-ROM 12.2

2007

  • Coniglio, M. C., H. E. Brooks, S. J. Weiss, and S. F. Corfidi, 2007: Forecasting the maintenance of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 556–570.
  • Coniglio, M. C., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, Z. I. Janjic, M. Pyle, J. Du, and D. Stensrud, 2007: Evaluating WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 11A.2.
  • Coniglio, M. C., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, and Z. I. Janjic, 2007: Evaluating storm-scale model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, Trieste, Italy, CD-ROM, 03.11.
  • Kong, F., M. Xue, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du, 2007: Preliminary analysis on the real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced as a part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.2.
  • Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, and M. Xue, 2007: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 6B.4.
  • Xue, M., F. Kong, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2007: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.1.

2006

  • Baldwin, M. E., and J. S. Kain, 2006: Sensitivity of several performance measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 636–648.
  • Bright, D.R. and M.S. Wandishin, 2006: Post Processed Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Convective Storms. Preprints, 18th Conf. Probability and Statistics in the Atmos. Sciences, Atlanta, GA., Amer. Meteor. Soc.
  • Bukovsky, M. S., J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real? Wea. Forecasting, 21, 307–324.
  • Elmore, K. L., M. E. Baldwin, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Field significance revisited: spatial bias errors in forecasts as applied to the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 519–531.
  • Elmore, K. L., D. M. Schultz, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The behavior of synoptic-scale errors in the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3355–3366.
  • Homar, V., D. J. Stensrud, J. J. Levit, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Value of human-generated perturbations in short-range ensemble forecasts of severe weather. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 347–363.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 167–181.
  • Karan, H. and K. Knupp, 2006: Mobile Integrated Profiler System (MIPS) observations of low-level convergent boundaries during IHOP. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 92–112.
  • Stensrud, D. J., and Coauthors, 2006: The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 491–498.
  • Weckwerth, T. M., and D. B. Parsons, 2006: A review of convection initiation and motivation for IHOP_2002. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 5–22.
  • Wilson, J. W., and R. D. Roberts, 2006: Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 23–47.

2005

  • Banacos, P. C., D. M. Schultz, 2005: The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 351–366. [pdf]
  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and S. Lakshmivarahan, 2005: Development of an automated classification procedure for rainfall systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 844–862.
  • Bright, D.R., M.S. Wandishin, R.E. Jewell, and S.J. Weiss, 2005: A physically based parameter for lightning prediction and its calibration in ensemble forecasts. Preprints, Conf. Meteor. Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM (4.3).
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, G. W. Carbin, D. A. Bright, J. J. Levit, and J. A. Hart, 2005: Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, D. C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 2A.5.
  • Koch, S. E., B. Ferrier, M. Stolinga, E. Szoke , S. J. Weiss, and J. S. Kain, 2005: The use of simulated radar reflectivity fields in the diagnosis of mesoscale phenomena from high-resolution WRF model forecasts. Preprints, 11th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J4J.7
  • Wandishin, M. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. L. Mullen, and J. V. Cortinas, 2005: Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 609–626.

2004

  • Bright, D. R. and P. Nutter, 2004: On the challenges of identifying the “best” ensemble member in operational forecasting. Preprints, 16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J11.3.
  • Jewell, R. E., and J. C. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P9.5
  • Kain, J. S., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170–181.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, and J. J. Levit, 2004: Subjective verification of deterministic models during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 9.3
  • Szoke, E. J., J. Brown, and B. Shaw, 2004: Examination of the performance of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J13.6.
  • Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2004: Examination of several different versions of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, paper 17.1

2003

  • Bright, D. R., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, and D. J. Stensrud, 2003: The utility of short-range ensemble forecasts in real-time prediction of severe convective weather at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 2.8.
  • Bright, D. R., M. S. Wandishin, S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, J. S. Kain, and D. J. Stensrud: Evaluation of short-range ensemble forecasts during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P15.5.
  • Ebert, E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, M. E. Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 481–492.
  • Ebert, E. E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, and M. E. Baldwin, 2003: Supplement to The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 492–492.
  • Elmore, K. L., S. J. Weiss, P. C. Banacos, 2003: Operational ensemble cloud model forecasts: Some preliminary results. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 953–964. [AMS]
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, 2003: Parameterized Updraft Mass Flux as a Predictor of Convective Intensity. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 106–116. [AMS]
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, M. P. Kay, G. Carbin, 2003: Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 847–860. [AMS]
  • Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, R. S. Schneider, and H. E. Brooks, 2003: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1797–1806.

2002

  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, M. P. Kay, 2002: Properties of the convection scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 1063–1079. [AMS]
  • Baldwin, M. E., S. Lakshmivarahan, and J. S. Kain, 2002: Development of an "events-oriented" approach to forecast verification. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 210–213.
  • Baldwin, M. E., and M. S. Wandishin, 2002: Determining the resolved spatial scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85–88.
  • Bothwell, P. D., J. A. Hart, and R. L. Thompson, 2002: An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J117–J120.
  • Bukovsky, M. S., P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin, 2002: Evaluation of Eta model forecasts of mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J121–J124.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay, 2002: The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 135–138.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and A. Just, 2002: Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative research/operational environment. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J1–J6.

2001

  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss, 2001: Utilizing the Eta model with two different convective parameterizations to predict convective initiation and evolution at the SPC. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 91–95.