2011 Spring Experiment Model Comparison

Comparisons:

Severe

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Deterministic Model Evaluation: 1. WRF Comparison 1: NMM4, HRW-NMM4, NMMB, HRW-ARW5, NSSL4; 2. WRF Comparison 2 NSSL/NASA/NCAR: 1km Sim. Refl | LML T | LML Td; 3. Simulated Satellite: NSSL Simulated Satellite vs. GOES; 4. 14z-18z HRRR: Composite Reflectivity
SSEF Evaluation: 5. Simulated Reflectivity: 40dBZ Spaghetti and Prob > 40dBZ; 6-9. Hourly Max 3-hr Prob vs. LSR: UH | UVV | SFC WND | GRAUP; 10. Radar Data Assim 1: 0-6h @ 15min int | 0-12hr @ 1h int; 10a. Radar Data Assim 2 (cycling): 0-6h @ 15min | 0-12hr @ 1h int; 11. Microphysics 1 (5 ARW Schemes): Comp. Reflectivity | 1-h QPF; 12. Microphysics 2 (Thompson V3.1 vs. V3.3): Comp. Reflectivity | 1-h QPF; 13-15. PBL (5 ARW Schemes): 1km Sim. Refl | LML T | LML Td

SSEF vs. SREF Comparisons: 16. Ens Mean SBCAPE & 0-6km Bulk Shear; 17. Ens Mean SCP & STP; 18. Prob. of SCP > 1, 3, 9; 19. Prob. of STP > 1, 3, 5; 20. 3-hr Calibrated Severe Probability
SSEF vs. SSEO Comparisons: 21. 40dBZ Spaghetti & Prob > 40dBZ; 22. Hourly Max 3-hr UH Prob > 25, 50
Bonus Comparisons: WSM6 M1-M4: Comp. Reflectivity; Ensemble Max Hourly Max Fields: UH, Updraft, 10m Wind, Graupel; SSEF Ensemble Mean LML T/Td